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| Albiol on the campaign trail in Badalona |
A canopy of sky blue flags being waved, a very pleased looking mayoral candidate, another dot of blue on the electoral map... this was a fairly common scene two days ago in Spain. Where the right-wing People's Party (PP) are the clear winners, against the beleaguered incumbent socialists (PSOE). But this scene of which I am talking was not taking place in what you would call a traditional Spanish heartland, this isn't even what some here would call Spain. We are in Badalona, third city of Catalonia and traditional territory of the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) which two days ago saw the PP, an openly anti-Catalan party, gain a plurality of seats and thus giving, its candidate, Xavier Albiol the legitimacy to go on and become mayor of Badalona.
NASTY PARTY
Albiol did this by waging a particularly nasty campaign, ramping up xenophobic discourse with slogans such as "Mano dura contra los que no se adaptan" (A hard hand against those who do not adapt) and "muchos lo piensan, yo lo digo" (a lot think it, I say it) and a flurry of speeches in which he talked extensively on subjects such as pestilence brought by illegal immigrants and minarets. A political narrative which would even make even the most ardent of Republicans blush. This, despite being in a municipality with lower immigration than average, seemed to be working as the PP edged up the polls, and the PP headquarters in Barcelona and Madrid were watching intently, some in disbelief, to see what would happen. Badalona, the political laboratory for right-wing electioneering has been successful. Very tellingly Sanchez-Camacho, the leader of the PP in Catalonia, ran to see Albiol as soon as the results came in, abandoning her candidate in Barcelona who also performed very well.
This successful trial-run, infected other campaigns in Catalonia, most notably the mayoral race in Barcelona, where the candidate Alberto Fernandez in the last days of the campaign centered his speeches on issues of immigration and crime (often overlapping).
THE YEAR AHEAD
Though the PP have been making inroads in Catalonia for a while now and Albiol is not an unknown, the scale of victory is undeniable and a great surprise to many. This tactic, now a proven hit, will most likely be used ahead of the legislative elections next year. Since some within the party fear that the lead of the PP over the PSOE could be soft and are worried about the dampening effect of Mariano Rajoy, the head of the party, who suffers from a lack of charisma and has already lost the party two elections. It would also centre the campaign on issues which the PP can distinguish itself from its socialist rival since in terms of economic policy (the main theme of the last general election) the fiscal straitjacket imposed on Spain makes this a policy subject on which in reality they are not able to disagree on (though they may try).
SWINGS AND ROUNDABOUTS
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However there are two main problems with this tactic. The first Albiol is finding out now as he tries to work out a majority in the municipality. Because of his extreme views and unpalatable agenda he has come up against a lot of resistance and there is talk of a centrist alliance to form a governing majority and thus block his legitimate place as mayor of Badalona (that or block his programme). This incapacity to form alliances could be very harmful to the PP. With the dislocation of certain regional politics from the national trends (think Basque Country and Catalonia), or what the PP scathingly refers to as the balkanisation of Spain, it is now very difficult for either of the two main national parties get a majority. Thus coalitions are inevitable, on pretty much every level of government and the Badalona experiment has proven to not be conducive to the consensus politics necessary for such an outcome.
The second is more of a long term problem. It is to do with centrifugal forces in Spanish political discourse. Let's say the PP manages to get an absolute majority next year or manages to beat out an acceptable coalition, they will have opened Pandora's box. Issues such as race, immigration, security become acceptable talking points and outrageous, frankly racist, claims become commonplace. This legitimises far-right parties and their discourse, and increases the chance that they will pick up votes, next time round, should the PP not deliver (something Sarkozy is finding out now).
PLATFORM FOR EXTREMISM
There was something even more worrying than the events in Badalona two nights ago, Plataforma Por Catalunya (the equivalent to the BNP in the UK or the NF in France, also known as PxC) crept into many important municipalities (Santa Coloma de Gramenet, St Boi de Llobregat and Mataró to name but a few) and further strengthened its hold on Vic. They went from 17 representatives in municipal government to 67. Their blue logo, a pastel blue to the PP's sky blue, sneaked into the corners of many Camembert charts as the evening progressed. I'm inclined to believe that this is not mere correlation and that the PP's capitalisation on economic misery by scapegoating immigrant populations has contributed to this. Interestingly enough the PxC did not win any seats in Badalona.
Let us hope the PP does not go a paler shade of blue in search of a presidential majority because the consequences could be beyond the pale.
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